Putin addresses western sanctions in speech to parliament
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International relations expert Professor Dr. Thomas Jäger suggests Putin has already lost the war in Ukraine, which has been going on for nine weeks. That is, according to Dr Jäger, since Russia “cannot achieve its war aims” any more, and Putin will need to hide the defeat under a negotiated solution. The expert has held the Chair of International Politics and Foreign Policy at the University of Cologne since 1999.
Dr Jäger, whose research focuses on international relations and American and German foreign policy, argued that with the war, Putin has done serious damage to Russia.
In an article in the German magazine Focus, he wrote: “How can a war be ended that the aggressor does not want to lose politically, but has already lost?
“This is the question behind the speculation that Russia could further escalate the violence in Ukraine because it can neither achieve its goals in the war itself nor successfully implement the political purposes sought by the war.”
And goes on to say: “President Putin, based on over-optimistic assumptions for the attack and an assessment of the overall situation that is out of touch with reality, has done serious damage to Russia.
“The country is politically isolated, economically under immense pressure, domestically repressive and, with a view to its future, deprived of all the advantages of its natural resources and location.”
Regarding the initial intentions of the Kremlin when the war against Ukraine was declared, Dr Jäger said Putin had created his plan based on “neo-imperialist ambitions”.
These included, according to the expert, the rapid defeat of the Ukrainian armed forces; the installation of a Russia-friendly government; and the “liberation” of the population.
But now, as a consequence of the defeat in Ukraine and the global condemnation against Moscow, the expert explains that the economic outlook for Russia is “bleak”.
He said: “Russia has set back its integration into the world economy by thirty years in only one month.
“In the future, it will no longer be seen as a reliable supplier of energy in many solvent states and will therefore lose supply contracts.
“This will lower the price of Russian exports to other states, as India has already demonstrated by buying oil at a discount.”
Dr Jäger went on to predict a dive for the rouble, a currency which “will remain limited to Russia, unlike what the Russian government was aiming for”.
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He added: “Production and consumption will be restricted in Russia, and the country will quickly lose touch with the global economy.
“Looking to the Soviet past is looking to the Russian future.”
And the international relations academic points out that “the only way for President Putin not to let the defeat become obvious is to find a negotiated solution”.
He concluded: “However, this requires the ability to perceive and endure cognitive dissonance.
“In doing so, he would have to admit to himself that he has just undone the ‘successes’ of the last twenty-two years.”
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