US election 2020: Trump SHOCK as latest polls show steady Biden lead

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The US president has been attempting to kick start his re-election bid in recent weeks, primarily through resuming campaign rallies. Saturday’s Tulsa rally saw underwhelming crowds around 6,500, but Fox News reported that 7.7 million tuned in to watch.

An election forecast by The Economist showed Biden has an enormous lead over Trump in regards to who is more likely to win the presidency on November 3.

The forecast report from the Economist using state and nation-wide polling data to determine estimated chances of victory, and was released on Monday.

It holds that Biden is 85 percent likely to win the election, and is 97 percent likely to win the popular vote.

Trump however has a major battle on his hands, as his re-election chances have been placed at 14 percent, and his chances of winning the popular votes are astronomically low at three percent.

Previous Economist reports saw a marginally larger gap in support for the two candidates.

Last Friday saw the most substantial disparity in election victory chances between Biden and Trump, at 88 percent and 12 percent respectively.

It follows other polls showing Biden with a steady lead over Trump: An Ipsos/Reuters poll released last Wednesday showed Biden support from registered voters at 48 percent.

In contract, only 35 percent of registered supporters supported Trump.

CNN noted in a review of the poll that the figures represented Biden’s highest edge over Trump since the start of 2020.

FiveThirtyEight analysis of state and nation polling averaged placed Biden ahead by 8.9 points, as roughly 50 percent of US vocoders supported the former Vice President.

Trump support was placed at 41 percent of voters favouring the incumbent.

Previous daily polling averages published by the site showed a gradual rise in Biden’s favourability rating among voters throughout June, as well as a gradual decline in Trump’s rating.

Fox New polling also showed similar results: Their poll held 50 percent registered voter support for Biden, and 38 percent for Trump.

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In response to Fox New’s poll, Trump called the news outlet “terrible”.

He wrote: “Fox News is out with another of their phoney polls, done by the same group of haters that got it even more wrong in 2016.

“Watch what happens in November.

“Fox is terrible!”

Trump also allegedly threatened his campaign manager, Brad Parscale, with a lawsuit over his poll slump, and reportedly said to Parscale: “I’m not f** losing to Joe Biden.”

The US Election isn’t determined on highest majority: Instead it is based on who wins the most votes based on the electoral college.

Votes in the US presidential election go towards unnamed “electors” who then vote for a specific candidate based on their state’s popular vote.

In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton beat Trump comfortably in the popular vote by nearly 3 million.

However, Donald Trump clinched the presidency with a majority of votes in 2016, winning 304 electoral votes to Clinton’s 227, mainly due to Trump’s victory in swing states such as Florida, Arizona and Oklahoma.

Polling in 2016 also gave Clinton the edge over Trump throughout the majority of the election period.

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